This Week in Hospitality Marketing Live Show 250 May 22nd 2020

This Week in Hospitality Marketing Live Show 250 May 22nd 2020

This Week In Hospitality Marketing Live Show 250

Co-Hosts
Mellisa Kavanagh
Stuart Butler
Stephanie Smith
Edward StOnge
Tristan Heaword
Ben Hanley
Show Notes
00:02 — Fuel Travel version 4 of their travel propensity for travel.
Topics

Top Story

1. CBRE Hotels Research: Full demand recovery by late 2022

Brands & Product

2. Hilton’s Nassetta: 3 to 4 years for recovery, but “no less optimistic” about travel
3. AHLA lays out ‘Roadmap to Recovery’
4. How do you socially distance at a Vegas casino? Caesars shares the new look of gambling

Intermediaries & Distribution

5. Expedia CEO Details Anti-Google Game Plan
6. Trivago outlines steps to preserve cash as revenue drops 33%, income down €222M
7. Why OTAs Are Your Best Friend

Marketing & Strategy

8. McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis [Editor’s Note – Hotels/Resorts rank last…]
9. Travel Intentions Pulse Survey (TIPS): Impact of Covid-19
10. Who’s Booking Hotel Rooms Right Now? Vacation Optimists.

Tech & Finance

11. Redfin CEO: Vacation real-estate markets are ‘toast’ because of the pandemic as Airbnb owners rush to offload their homes
12. Debt Woes Mount for Hotel Company Tied to Coronavirus Relief Loan Controversy
13. 5 Barriers to Business Travel’s Recovery

Boop!

14. A Maryland restaurant’s new tables have huge inner tubes that make social distancing look fun

Ruh-Roh…

15. Lovely: Las Vegas Responds To Depressed Demand By Hiking Resort Fees…
Maybe it’s the reports of the US hospitality industry experiencing 51% unemployment clouding my judgment, but I’m just not sure I buy the forecast of a full demand recovery for the US hotel industry by late 2022 in this week’s Top Story.
Why? Glad you asked.
First, here is the 2019 baseline for US hotel occupancy:
  • Occ% – 66.1%
  • ADR – $131.21
  • RevPAR – $86.76
For 2020, CBRE is forecasting:
  • Occ% – 41.0%
  • ADR – $101.67
  • RevPAR – $41.67
And for 2022, CBRE predicts:
  • Occ% – 65.0%
  • ADR – $122.93
  • RevPAR – $79.95
Now, let’s recall that following 9/11, the lowest 12-month moving average for occupancy percentage was 58.5%. It took 3 years for 12-month moving average of US Occ% to recover 5 points to 63.5%.
Following the global financial crisis, there was a four year span for ADRs to return to pre-disruption levels.
Look, I sincerely hope they are right. I REALLY do. But I just don’t see any evidence of a massive rebound that accelerates at a much faster rate than the last two.
Perhaps most telling is one paragraph inserted in the lower section of the article that reads:
“A critical factor driving the lodging recovery is a reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases. In the event of a prolonged need for social distancing and a persistent occurrence of new COVID-19 cases, CBRE has developed a forecast of a hypothetical downside scenario in which the recovery in RevPAR to precrisis levels is pushed out to 2025.”

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